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Iowa has 99 counties, and in 2016, Donald Trump won 93 of them, including all of its rural counties. Exit polls show Mr. Trump won rural voters 63% to 33%. Thirty-six percent of the state’s 3.2 million people live in rural areas, and 64% reside in urban cities and suburbs.
Iowa had 31 counties that voted for President Obama — twice — and then flipped to vote for Mr. Trump; it has more counties that made this pivot than any other state.
The eastern edge and southeastern part of the state is a traditionally blue-collar, working class area. Many of the counties along the river were Obama-to-Trump counties and some are traditional Democratic strongholds that went Republican in 2016 for the first time in decades. Notably, Dubuque County voted Republican for the first time since Dwight Eisenhower’s election in 1952.
In 2016, exit polls showed Mr. Trump won White voters without college degrees 58% to 38%. CBS News’ latest poll shows Mr. Trump was still leading among these voters, albeit by a smaller margin of 54% to 43%. He also continues to draw strong support from White evangelicals, a group that made up a third of Iowa’s electorate in 2016.
But Biden seemed to be on track to outperform Hillary Clinton among White college-educated voters, a group Mr. Trump narrowly won, according to CBS News’ October 11 Battleground Tracker poll. Exit polls in 2016 showed Mr. Trump won White college graduates 49% to 44%. CBS News polling before Election Day showed Biden leading among these voters 55% to 43%.
Biden is also expected to cut into Mr. Trump’s margins with men. In pre-election polling, Biden trailed the president by 9 points among men, but Mr. Trump won this group by 28 points four years ago.
Mr. Trump also won suburban voters 51% to 42% in 2016, and he carried independents by 13 points, 51% to 38%, according to exit polls. CBS News’ polling before Election Day showed Biden leading 49% to 45% among independents.
Over one in five (22%) Iowa voters are over the age of 65. CBS News’ polling in October found that among likely voters in this age group, Mr. Trump had 4-point edge, 51% to 47%, which is precisely the margin he had in 2016, according to exit polling.
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